Leading Economic Index improves, but pace of growth slows

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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the US rose in December but the pace of growth slowed. The Leading Economic Index reached a reading of 109.5, an increase of 0.3%. The index had risen by 0.7% in November and 0.9% in October.

“The US [Leading Economic Index’s] slowing pace of increase in December suggests that US economic growth continues to moderate in the first quarter of 2021,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economic research at The Conference Board. “Improvements in the US [Leading Economic Index] were very broad-based among the leading indicators, except for rising initial claims for unemployment insurance and a mixed consumer outlook on business and economic conditions.”

Despite the resurgence of Covid-19 and weak labor markets, The Conference Board expects the US economy to expand by at least 2.0% this quarter and gain momentum throughout the year.

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis noted that US real GDP rose at an annual rate of 4.0% in the fourth quarter.