Philadelphia Fed lowers GDP estimate for the year; economy outlook weakens


The US economy looks weaker than it did in February, according to the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s Survey of Professional Forecasters.

US GDP growth is expected to grow at 2.3% in this quarter, down from 4.2% in the previous forecast.

Forecasters expect GDP growth of 2.5% for full-year 2022, 2.3% in 2023 and 2.0% in 2024. However, these annual estimates are lower than the previous estimates.

Today’s report revised downward estimated unemployment rates. The forecasters project the quarter’s rate to be 3.6%, down from 3.7% estimated in the previous quarter.

In addition, forecasters raised their estimates for job gains for the current quarter and full-year 2022. This quarter, jobs are expected to see a monthly rise of 381,300, up from the previous projection of 357,000. Projections for the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment suggest job gains at a monthly rate of 479,700 in 2022.

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