UK hiring activity to be back at ‘normal’ levels as early as January 2021

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Stuart Gentle Publisher at Onrec

UK hiring activity to be back at ‘normal’ levels as early as January 2021

  • 14 Oct 2020
  • |

    The year-to-date UK vacancies for 2020 were processed by an exponential smoothing algorithm, which produced a 15-week forecast.

  • Statistics
    • Hiring across Britain is still 31% down, but that’s up from -68% in April
    • If the jobs comeback continues at this rate, ‘normal’ levels of recruitment by January 2021
    • But job ad resurgence may be offset by doubling of unemployment rate by year end; Bank of England forecasts unemployment to hit 7.5% by end of the year  
    • London hiring stagnates, while North East, Midlands & South West recover fastest 
    • Huge sector variation: 10 year recruitment high for Logistics & Warehouse jobs; Manufacturing also strong; but a bleak winter expected for Travel & Graduate jobseekers where hiring is still +50% down
    • New restrictions mean Hospitality & Catering vacancies could fall further to 75% below normal levels by late spring and into the summer of 2021

    Projection Methodology   

    The year-to-date UK vacancies for 2020 were processed by an exponential smoothing algorithm, which produced a 15-week forecast. The predicted values are a statistical continuation of the historical data and include confidence bands for the predictions at each point in time. The model does not predict or attempt to account for externalities such as changes to government policy, but instead relies solely on the historic data.

    Regional Overview: 

    U.K hiring activity currently sits at 31% of pre-pandemic levels, so we’re still missing over 250,000 jobs in the U.K. London has seen the slowest rate of recovery (-51%), while the North East (-15%), East Midlands (-16%) and the South West (-17%) have seen sustained hiring growth since May. 

     

    Jan 2020 Vacancies

    May 2020 Vacancies

    Oct 2020 vacancies

    % Change Jan to Oct

    UK wide*

    876,983

    360,183

    602,455

    -31%

    London

    199,657

    67,082

    97,987

    -51%

    South East England

    137,970

    65,417

    90,766

    -34%

    North West England

    70,788

    31,512

    50,727

    -28%

    South West England

    66,366

    31,865

    55,056

    -17%

    Eastern England

    73,166

    33,529

    54,782

    -25%

    West Midlands

    60,050

    24,327

    43,791

    -27%

    Yorkshire And The Humber

    46,130

    20,099

    33,831

    -27%

    Scotland

    33,374

    15,146

    25,147

    -25%

    East Midlands

    44,518

    19,053

    37,264

    -16%

    Wales

    18,298

    7,694

    13,679

    -25%

    North East England

    13,191

    6,748

    11,235

    -15%

    Northern Ireland

    6,197

    2,485

    4,891

    -21%

    The table above shows the variance in hiring activity at 3 key points of the 2020 – January (pre-pandemic), May (2020 hiring low point) and October (latest hiring data)

    Andrew Hunter, co-founder of Adzuna, comments: “I’m feeling increasingly optimistic that, after a dreadful spring and summer for the U.K job market, we are beginning to see a sustained recovery in hiring. There are definitely tough times ahead – we anticipate unemployment to significantly worsen as we move into winter, the job market will become more competitive and it’s clear that many sectors are keeping a lid on hiring while we battle the second wave of the virus. Confidence is key to getting Britain hiring again, and that will come from keeping the virus at bay, a strengthening economy and continued government support for our businesses big and small.” 

    Sector Overview: 

    Logistics & Warehouse, Manufacturing & Cleaning jobs are now in positive territory – hiring rates in these sectors are now above pre-pandemic levels. There are now over 60,000 live logistics & warehouse jobs being advertised across Britain, the most we’ve seen in a single month since we started collecting job market data 10 years ago. The autumn looks bleak for travel & hospitality jobseekers (-63%), Graduates (-59%) and Consultants/Freelancers (-57%). 

    Sector

    Job vacancies Jan 20′ vs Oct 20’

    Hospitality, Travel & Catering Jobs

    -63%

    Graduate Jobs

    -59%

    Consultancy Jobs

    -57%

    PR

    -57%

    HR & Recruitment Jobs

    -56%

    Admin Jobs

    -55%

    Charity & Voluntary Jobs

    -53%

    Sales Jobs

    -52%

    Energy

    -50%

    Accounting & Finance Jobs

    -50%

    Legal Jobs

    -45%

    Engineering Jobs

    -41%

    Retail Jobs

    -39%

    IT Jobs

    -38%

    Customer Services Jobs

    -30%

    Creative & Design Jobs

    -30%

    Teaching Jobs

    -24%

    Scientific & QA Jobs

    -22%

    Maintenance Jobs

    -21%

    Property Jobs

    -19%

    Healthcare & Nursing Jobs

    -18%

    Trade & Construction Jobs

    -16%

    Social work Jobs

    -11%

    Cleaning Jobs

    14%

    Manufacturing Jobs

    19%

    Logistics & Warehouse Jobs

    77%

    The table above shows the % of job vacancies advertised in the U.K October 2020 vs. the pre-pandemic levels of January 2020

    Andrew Hunter, co-founder of Adzuna, comments: “Hiring activity could be back to normal as early as January 2021, but make no mistake, we will see a very different jobs market emerge into the post-pandemic world. The recovery has been led by the handful of sectors boosted by the pandemic. Logistics & Warehouse jobs are up 77% since the start of the year, Manufacturing jobs have grown by a fifth, and key worker roles like Healthcare & Nursing and Social Care are continually hiring. But these growth areas sit in stark contrast to sectors like Hospitality & Catering, where the recovery has ground to a halt over recent months and hiring activity is stuck around 60% below normal. The wave of new UK restrictions, including the curfew, could cause these sectors to backtrack further and we expect Hospitality & Catering hiring activity to decline to 75% below normal levels by late spring and into the summer of 2021. Similarly, Travel looks stuck in the mud with no signs of imminent recovery. There will be a knock-on effect on workers in these areas and we expect to see huge movement between jobs as workers look to migrate from fading sectors to flourishing sectors.”  

    UK Salary overview:

    Month

    Average advertised salary — UK

    September 2020

    £36,436

    August 2020

    £36,201

    July 2020

    £36,604

    June 2020

    £36,964

    May 2020

    £36,727

    April 2020

    £35,645

    March 2020

    £35,278

    February 2020

    £35,264

    January 2020

    £35,094

    December 2019

    £34,887

    November 2019

    £34,680

    October 2019

    £34,550

    September 2019

    £34,664

    Advertised salary performance in key sectors:

    Sector

    Average advertised salary, October

    Average advertised salary, May

    Average advertised salary, January

    % change from Jan

    Retail

    £24,931

    £30,746

    £27,090

    -8%

    Manufacturing

    £22,823

    £25,262

    £24,488

    -7%

    IT

    £53,147

    £53,331

    £51,307

    +4%

    Logistics & Warehouse

    £23,973

    £24,167

    £24,025

    0%

    Healthcare & Nursing

    £39,752

    £39,432

    £38,450

    +3%

    Trade & Construction

    £40,062

    £42,313

    £42,667

    -6%