The Conference Board Employment Trends Index rose in January to a reading of 113.71, up from a downwardly revised reading of 112.91 in December 2023. The index is at its highest since May 2023 and suggests job growth in the coming months.
“The ETI increased for a second consecutive month, suggesting employment growth will continue in the coming months,” Selcuk Eren, senior economist at The Conference Board, said in a press statement. “The index now stands at its highest level since May 2023 and remains elevated compared to prepandemic levels, though below its peak in March 2022.”
Eren noted payroll gains were economywide in January after being predominantly driven by three industries — healthcare and social assistance, leisure and hospitality, and government — in the second half of 2023.
“Temporary help services — an early indicator for hiring in other industries and a component of the Employment Trends Index — added jobs in January, breaking the downward trend observed since April 2022,” Eren said. “Furthermore, the percentage of consumers saying jobs were hard to get in The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey — another ETI component — is back to single digits for the first time since March 2022. With job openings remaining elevated compared to prepandemic levels and layoffs at a historic low, the prospects of a soft landing continue to rise.”
January’s increase in the Employment Trends Index was driven by positive contributions from four of its eight components: percentage of respondents who say they find “jobs hard to get,” real manufacturing and trade sales, number of employees hired by the temporary-help industry, and initial claims for unemployment insurance.