The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic will be long term, according to information from the Congressional Budget Office. It reported that a calculation in May found real gross domestic product between 2020 and 2030 will be $15.7 trillion less than a similar calculation in January.
In its May calculation, the Congressional Budget Office estimates social distancing measures sparked by Covid-19 peaked in April. Real GDP will contract by 37.7% at an annual rate in the second quarter and there will be almost 26 million fewer people employed than in the fourth quarter of last year.
By the fourth quarter of 2021, real GDP is projected to be 1.6% lower and the unemployment rate 5.1 percentage points higher when compared with the fourth quarter of 2019.
The CBO also projects the labor market will improve after the third quarter as social distancing diminishes but the improvements will not make up for earlier losses.
It expects the unemployment rate to be 15.1% in the second quarter, rising to 15.8% in the third quarter. It had been 3.8% in the first quarter.
The full May report is available online.