A US economic recovery should start in the third quarter, with the job gains averaging 2.3 million per month. That was the median forecast in the Survey of Professional Forecasters released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
Real gross domestic product is expected to grow by 10.6% on an annualized basis in the third quarter as well, according to the median forecast in the report.
Overall, the forecasters expect recovery to occur over the next four quarters.
In comparison, the median forecast for the second (current) quarter calls for a contraction in real GDP of 32.2%. Prior to the Covid-19 crisis, the previous estimate for growth had been 2.1% for the second quarter.
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The report is based on a survey of 42 forecasters.