The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the US rose 0.3% in March, signaling continued economic growth through the end of this year despite the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
March’s increase follows growth of 0.6% in February. The index level now stands at 119.8 (2016 = 100).
“The US [Leading Economic Index] rose again in March despite headwinds from the war in Ukraine,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economic research at The Conference Board. “This broad-based improvement signals economic growth is likely to continue through 2022 despite volatile stock prices and weakening business and consumer expectations.”
US gross domestic product is now forecast to grow 3.0% this year, Ozyildirim said. That’s slower than the 5.6% pace in 2021 but well above the pre-pandemic trend. The rate also reflects a 0.5 percentage-point downgrade in The Conference Board’s base case because of the effects of the war in Ukraine.
Downside risks also remain a concern, he said. These include intensification of supply chain disruptions and inflation linked to the lingering pandemic shutdowns and the war as well as tightening monetary policy and persistent labor shortages.